Given current and expected future trends, MTC/ABAG project that by 2040 the region will grow by 820,000 households, from 2.6 million in 2010 to 3.4 million in 2040. Employment is expected to grow by 1.3 million, from 3.4 million jobs in 2010 to 4.7 million jobs in 2040.
Accommodating this growth while reducing greenhouse gas emissions, maintaining the character of the region, and respecting local control is no easy task. The Scenario proposes several key land use strategies, tools, and assumptions to help make this future possible. Most importantly, the Final Preferred Scenario directs the majority of household and employment growth to Priority Development Areas (PDAs). These PDAs are locations within existing communities identified by the jurisdictions themselves that present infill development opportunities, and are easily accessible to transit, jobs, shopping and services, as shown in the map below.
Approximately 77 percent of all new projected household growth will be in PDAs. Roughly 46 percent of these new households will be in the regions' three largest cities: Oakland, San Francisco, and San Jose. Approximately 33 percent of new households will be in Bayside cities such as Hayward, San Mateo, and Richmond, while 21 percent will be in Inland, Coastal, and Delta cities such as Walnut Creek, Dublin, Santa Rosa, and Antioch.
About 55 percent of all new projected jobs will be in PDAs. Approximately 43 percent of these new jobs will be in the Big 3 cities, with 40 percent in Bayside cities, and 17 percent in Inland, Coastal, and Delta cities.